1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	277700	Merchants Cove	Current	1,807	7.66	6.55	2.76
			Estimated	1,600	7.75	6.56	3.14

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Welcome ashore! Merchants Cove is a highly asymmetrical eurogame where each player assumes the role of a different fantasy merchant with a unique shop. The merchants contend to sell their goods to the arriving adventurers at the cove’s piers—the most famous markets in the Five Realms. Each player uses their own set of role-specific components and gameplay mechanisms to produce their goods, increase their shop’s efficiency, and—most importantly—get rich! Though the merchants work independently in their specialized shops, they compete against each other to attract customers, influence the demands for goods, and secure sponsorships from the four faction halls. To get an edge, merchants can employ local townsfolk to work in their shops as staff. Or if they dare to cut corners, they can gain leverage from the corrupt lair of rogues—but at what cost? After three days of selling at the markets, the wealthiest merchant shall be declared the winner! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/277700

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Merchants Cove? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Merchants Cove. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Merchants Cove. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	277700	Merchants Cove	1.00	6.55	7.66	3.14	1,807
1	2012	87821	Kingdom of Solomon	0.90	5.85	6.88	2.76	601
2	2012	122890	Mercante	0.87	5.68	6.58	2.85	341
3	2020	297674	Pacific Rails Inc.	0.86	5.69	6.96	3.31	281
4	2010	66362	Glen More	0.86	7.01	7.31	2.67	8,951
5	1974	147	Crude: The Oil Game	0.85	5.97	6.72	2.74	1,097
6	2013	147884	Ore: The Mining Game	0.85	5.59	7.30	2.33	88
7	2016	207691	Railroad Revolution	0.84	6.61	7.35	3.25	2,631
8	2019	253635	Ragusa	0.84	6.18	7.01	2.77	1,483
9	2010	75382	Karnaxis	0.83	5.53	6.34	3.22	88
10	2012	129858	La Venise du Nord	0.83	5.58	6.42	2.71	158
11	2016	207330	Hellas	0.83	5.72	6.72	2.75	372
12	1999	135	Kontor	0.82	5.63	5.96	2.21	784
13	2019	236301	Living Planet	0.81	5.78	7.26	3.64	416
14	2017	163642	Chimera Station	0.81	6.54	7.30	3.15	2,448
15	2018	219832	Barbarians: The Invasion	0.81	5.99	7.45	3.26	683
16	2000	554	La Città	0.81	6.63	7.03	3.28	5,153
17	2012	98443	Dark Horse	0.80	5.67	6.73	2.67	284
18	2017	193031	Coal Country	0.80	5.51	5.97	3.25	40
19	2016	195867	Papà Paolo	0.80	5.91	6.94	2.76	711
20	2019	214880	City of the Big Shoulders	0.79	6.78	7.84	4.02	2,200
21	2020	301255	Whistle Mountain	0.79	6.68	7.77	2.98	1,959
22	2014	109276	Kanban: Driver's Edition	0.79	7.29	7.82	4.36	6,304
23	2008	38862	Giants	0.79	6.35	6.97	2.94	2,469
24	2013	143401	Yunnan	0.79	6.19	7.11	3.24	1,318
25	2016	180852	Tiny Epic Western	0.78	6.25	6.65	2.88	3,897

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Merchants Cove while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	277700	Merchants Cove	6.55	1.00	6.55	7.66	3.14	1,807
1	2010	66362	Glen More	6.00	0.86	7.01	7.31	2.67	8,951
2	2012	126163	Tzolk'in: The Mayan Calendar	5.78	0.75	7.74	7.89	3.67	34,212
3	2014	109276	Kanban: Driver's Edition	5.73	0.79	7.29	7.82	4.36	6,304
4	2011	70149	Ora et Labora	5.61	0.76	7.37	7.70	3.89	10,274
5	2016	207691	Railroad Revolution	5.56	0.84	6.61	7.35	3.25	2,631
6	2016	196340	Yokohama	5.55	0.74	7.48	7.84	3.29	10,154
7	2015	170042	Raiders of the North Sea	5.49	0.73	7.54	7.77	2.54	19,249
8	2019	265188	Glen More II: Chronicles	5.47	0.74	7.37	7.98	3.05	5,637
9	2019	214880	City of the Big Shoulders	5.39	0.79	6.78	7.84	4.02	2,200
10	2000	554	La Città	5.35	0.81	6.63	7.03	3.28	5,153
11	2017	163642	Chimera Station	5.32	0.81	6.54	7.30	3.15	2,448
12	2020	301255	Whistle Mountain	5.31	0.79	6.68	7.77	2.98	1,959
13	2012	87821	Kingdom of Solomon	5.27	0.90	5.85	6.88	2.76	601
14	2019	253635	Ragusa	5.19	0.84	6.18	7.01	2.77	1,483
15	1974	147	Crude: The Oil Game	5.09	0.85	5.97	6.72	2.74	1,097
16	2012	126792	Myrmes	5.07	0.74	6.81	7.27	3.45	5,290
17	2004	12962	Reef Encounter	5.02	0.75	6.72	7.14	3.68	5,032
18	2014	154825	Arkwright	5.01	0.74	6.80	7.83	4.59	2,212
19	2015	176544	Automania	5.01	0.77	6.55	7.33	2.73	2,333
20	2008	38862	Giants	4.99	0.79	6.35	6.97	2.94	2,469
21	2011	104347	Santiago de Cuba	4.97	0.77	6.49	6.90	2.16	4,394
22	2009	39938	Carson City	4.96	0.72	6.89	7.24	3.18	6,934
23	2012	122890	Mercante	4.95	0.87	5.68	6.58	2.85	341
24	2005	15817	Manila	4.92	0.74	6.61	6.98	2.03	5,748
25	2020	297674	Pacific Rails Inc.	4.92	0.86	5.69	6.96	3.31	281

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	277700	Merchants Cove	Final Frontier Games	Jonny Pac	Mihajlo Dimitrievski	Economic	Components: 3-Dimensional (3D)	Commodity Speculation
			Devil Dice Games	Carl Van Ostrand		Fantasy	Components: Marbles	Dice Rolling
			Galakta	Drake Villareal		Nautical	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Rondel
			Mosaico Jogos				Setting: The Five Realms	Tile Placement
			Pegasus Spiele					Time Track
			Super Meeple					Variable Player Powers
			TCG Factory					Worker Placement

Individual Game Analysis